POLITICAL LOCKJAM IN HAITI: LESSONS FOR NIGERIA

By  Yilgak'ha
Haiti has a unique place in world history. It is the first and only black republic in the western world. The country is situated on the Hispaniola/Caribbean Islands and occupies approximately 10,640.98 square miles of land and 73.36 square miles of water. The history of the people is traceable to West Africans when they were imported as slaves to produce raw materials for international commerce (Institute for Haitian Studies, n.a). 

With an estimated population of about 11.54 million people, the nation is the poorest in the Western Hemisphere. World Bank (2021) provided statistics to support this submission saying that with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita of US$1,149. 50 and Human Development Index (HDI) ranking of 170 out of 187 country, the country remains the poorest in Latin America and Caribbean region and amongst the poorest in the world.

The first time I heard of Haiti was January 12, 2010 when the country witnessed on of the most devastating earthquake in human history. The calamity which befell the country is described as "a magnitude 7.0 earthquake" brought untold hardship on the country's citizens and bewilderment of the world. More generally, Haiti has gone through unmatched decades of socio - economic, political contradictions which has generated global attention. These problems were not without causes. 

Some of the challenging experiences Haiti has experienced in her chequered history include vulnerability to natural disaster (earthquake); colonialism, weak government institutions as well as as haphazard flow of foreign intervention via aids from Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs). I permit me to add what I called, untamed spiritism.

History has it that Haiti like developing countries when through protracted colonisation, occupation and exploitative experience with countries like Spain, France and the United States. Formally called, Saint Dominique, it became independent on January 1, 1804 and was renamed Haiti. The country lead what is described as the largest and most successful slave rebellion in the western world (Sutherland, 2007).

Before the 2010 earthquake, the country had had recurrent cases of earthquakes which occurred in 1751, 1770, 1842 and 1946. The most devastating was that of 2010 which was reported to have involved about 250,000 lives lose; 300,000 people injured and also about 1.5 million people who were forced to live in makeshift camps under heavy distress (World Bank, 2021). It was one of the worse humanitarian crisis in human history after a similar one in Pakistan in 2005 and have attracted substantial global interventions. 

It was reported that despite the challenging operational environment, approximately 4 Million people benefited from food assistance, emergency shelter materials destributed to 1.5 Million people; safe water made available to 1.2 million people and another 1Million benefited from from cash-for-work initiative donor agencies (Inter Agency Standing Committee (IASC), 2010). Several other interventions we received however, the situation in Haiti were still itchy and part of the reasons could be institutional corruption. 

Spiritism is another challenge. Haiti is a primarily a Catholic Christian Republic but known for the practice of Syncretism, a religious practice that embraces many belief systems. During the 2010 earthquake American Evangelical Christian, Pat Robertson insinuated that God was angry with Haitians because they have sold their souls to the Devil in pursuit of material gains (Faustian bargain). 

Whether the insinuation is tenable or not is a subject debate. However, I stumbled on a book, "Salt of the Earth" which suggests that a people whose affairs are dictated by ancestral spirit world cannot build functional institutions. Let me cite it verbatim, "let us think of the fact that in Africa belief in spirits continues to be a great obstacle to the development of the land and to the construction of a modern economic organisation"(Joseh Cardinal Ratzinger, Former Pope, Pope Benedict the XVI, in an interview with Peter Seewald, 1997, P. 23). 

The Pope puts it authoritatively that it is a 'fact' even though the emphasis was on Africa. Whichever, Haitians have African root, they originated from a continent where a sizeable proportion of the citizenry believe strongly in ancestral spirits and rely on them for empowerment and direction. It is important to note here that fetish practitioners do not believe in rules but manipulative capacity to circumvent due process(es) with the sole aim of gaining undue advantage(s) at the expense of the state and/or citizens.

The weak institutional framework which cannot guarantee good governance is evident in Haiti. This is clearly shown in the country's inability to prevent any reoccurrence or preparedness to respond to subsequent occurrences. A Country like Chile has been noted to have shown better preparedness than Haiti (NBC News). The military was said to be assisting greatly but with the dismantling of the country's national army by Jean-Bertrand Aristide’s presidency without transfering their disaster management capabilities to civilian public institutions things went awry (The Conversation, 2021). This has left the country vulnerable with another earthquake occuring in 2012 and 2016.

Another classical manifestation of weak institutional framework in the country is in the area of power succession. The emergence of unstable governments in Haiti been a recurrent decimal for over four decades and it is a hard nut to crack. This has weakened the central administration with telling constitutional crisis that is currently engulfing the country.

The most worrisome manifestation of institutional weakness is the current political lockjam in Haiti. Following the assassination of the President, Joverel Moise on July 7, 2021, a serious constitutional and political crisis ensued. This is because the Late President appointed the country's Foreign Affairs and Religious Minister, Joseph Claude as the new Prime Minister (PM) before his dead, following the resignation of the former Acting PM, Joseph Jouthe on April 4, 2021 but the new appointees was yet to be cleared by the parliament.

Curiously, there is presently no parliamentary arm of government in Haiti to function as the tenure of the parliamentarians had expired with no election duly held until September. A vacuum has been created in the office of the PM of the country and there is an urgent need for it. The duo of Joseph Jouthe and Joseph Claude are laying claims to the office. This is the dicy delimma the country is facing. Although the international community especially the United Nation and the United States of America (USA) have recognised Joseph Jouthe the is palpable tension in the land.

The government and people of Haiti are at the brink. It will take genuine statemanship and state craft to manage the crisis. In the interim, a two weeks state of emergency has been declared in the nation. What Haiti needs to do in this current circumstances is that the political actors must quickly learnt to sacrifice their personal ambitions for the sake of the country. The situation in Haiti is an abnormal one and so the solution must be abnormal too. It is a very difficult challenge but certainly not an impossible one to manage.

*Lessons for Nigerian*

The experience of Haiti is largely a metaphor for Nigeria's historical experience. The differences are only but few. Haiti is situated in Caribbean/Latin America; Nigeria is in Africa. Haiti is small sized and less populated; Nigeria has a large sized (923,769 kilometre Squares) and highly populated with 207 million people; Haiti is small sized and not highly populated. Nigeria is one of the most naturally endowed countries in the world; Haiti has no clear history of natural resource endowment; Nigeria is relatively free with isolated cases of droughts and floodings in parts of the country; Haiti is supceptible to natural disasters. This comparism should have given Nigeria clear advantage but to no avail.

What Nigeria shared in common with Haiti are that both countries are blacks. They shared similar colonial and neo-colonial experiences. Both countries have comparatively weak administrative institutions; both countries are largely religious and their citizens living in abject poverty.

Throughout out history, the major problems Nigeria went through even now are human induced. The country's experience with colonialism, civil war, June 12, institutional corruption and insecurity are all triggered by human tendencies which can be reversed through sheer determination and commitment.

I have always argued that colonialism is actually a setback to Nigeria's development but continuous lamentation over the experience sixty (60) years after it became independent is the laziest thing to do. Colonialism is never a death sentence to nations which passed through it. History is agoged with countries which emerged from shattering colonial experiences to be great. The United States of America (USA) was colonised by Britain; today it is the most powerful nation on earth and the police of the world. Japan colonised India; today India is a huge source support for Japan in the area of Information Communication Technology (ICT) services. South Africa emerged from de-humanising Apartheid regime to be a leading nation in Africa in the area of politics and economy! The list is long, you can think of many other countries in this regard. In fact, if limited or no colonialism were to be ticket for prosperity, Ethiopia would have perhaps been the most prosperous nation in the universe.

It should be noted also that natural disaster is not a death sentence either. Countries like Ireland which went through unimaginable hunger and starvation (1845-1849); Rwanda pased treacherous genocide experience  between April 7 and July 15, 1994 with 800,000 slaughtered; Israel which suffered the Nazi threat of extinction in 1941 with 6 Million lives destroyed; years of locus Brazil and Agentinafrom as well as Dubai which was founded on a very dry desert caused by natural occurrences yet bounced back stronger and are doing exceeding well in every area of human endeavour!

It is instructive to note here that nations are organic and the journey to Nationhood is a process. The process is not a straight jacket path but an andulating one where there is eminent chances of falling and rising. It is a continuum which could be thorny and daunting. 

The strength of any country is measured by it ability to overcome it most challenging experiences. Only weak nations could fall and resigned to fate with endless lamentation and blame games which did not redeem Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden. When there are problems or possibility of one happening (make no mistake about it there shall always be!), it is the responsibility of state actors to mobilise available resources, 'state craft' and capabilities to tackle it. The most responsible action any nation could take in this regard is to study or review situations with the view to finding enduring solutions. A nation could also be proactive to evolve preventive measures eve before any potential national problem(s) occur. 

Nigeria is seriously lagging behind in the area of practivity. For example warning signs could given regarding eminent flooding or security breaches but actions will not be taken untill the worst happened. The only time to know how proactive an average leader could be is when there is glaring threat of impeachment or a matter involving personal risk of those at the corridors of power and their crannies. That is the Nigerian leadership story!

The leadership structure in Nigeria is about the individuals in power and not the state institutions. The country's institutions are very weak. Heads of institutions in Nigeria are the instructions in the Louis the XIV of France's, "I am the State" fashion! The opinions of those at the helms of affairs are final even if those views are antithetical to the survival of the institution or state as a whole. Their names are louder than those of the institutions they control. This is an abnormality; a complete deviation from global best practices. For instance, you might be in the USA for years without necessarily knowing who the head of police of the country is not to talk of his name but the institution he controls!

The main hypothesis of this discourse is that a nation whose institutions are weak and epileptic cannot achieve much. Such states are at risk of degenerating into failed states except something urgent is done to reverse the situation. The impressive progress development and emerging economies like USA, Germany, Britain, Japan, etc, and emerging economies like China, India, Singapore etc. are making, is attributed to constitutionalism and institutional strengthening. 

The lesson that can be learnt from the perennial problems of Haiti generally and its current constitutional crisis in particular is that when a nation default in proactively  marshalling out political will to solve its problems, it is sure to fail. Nigeria, like Haiti is 'dancing on the brink' of utter collapse especially if it failed to take advantage of the current constitutional review process to address its most pressing national questions which includes issues of restructuring in the light of seccesion threats; state policing in the light of insecurity; fiscal federalism in the light bad governance and autonomy for local governments in the light of institutional weakness and the tendencies for dictatorship.

It is important for Nigerians to note that being religious does not necessarily convey prosperity on the country especially when the practice of religion is compounded by fetish and occultic motivations. To say the least, Syncretism as it is practised in Haiti is a direct invitation to choas. A man or a people cannot delinked themselves from the belief systems. A nation whose people are nurtured by contradictory belief systems may not build a vibrant nation. Nigeria is our only heritage, and if it collapsed, where do we go to? A foodforethought for all of us. God day Nigeria!

*(Modest Thoughts with Ayuba Yilgak'ha, July 12, 2021; SMS: 0811816263; Email: loisayuba420@gmail.com)*

*References*

1. Sutherland, C. (2007). Haitian Revolution 1791-1804. http://www.blackpast.org/global-africa-history/haitian-revolution-1791-1804.

2. Macro trends (2021). Haitian population growth rate 1950-2021.http://www.macrotrends.net/countries/HTI/haiti/population-growth-rate.

3. Peter, L. (1997). Salt of the Earth. San Francisco: Ignatius Press.

4. World Bank (2021). The World Bank in Haiti. http://world bank.org/country/haiti/overview.

5. IASC (2010). Response to the humanitarian crisis in Haiti. AISC 6Months Report.

6. Institute of Haitian Studies (n.a). Haiti: A brief history of a complex nation. http://haitianstudies.uk.edu/haiti-history

GOV. LALONG SWEARS IN SOME APPOINTEES OF GOVERNMENT IN THE STATE PUBLIC SERVICE

ADDRESS OF THE EXECUTIVE GOVERNOR OF PLATEAU STATE RT. HON. (DR) SIMON BAKO LALONG KSGG AT THE SWEARING IN CEREMONY OF SOME APPOINTEES OF GOVERNMENT IN THE STATE PUBLIC SERVICE HELD ON 13TH JULY 2021 AT THE BANQUET HALL, NEW GOVERNMENT HOUSE, LITTLE RAYFIELD JOS.

Protocols
1. It is with great pleasure that I address you today on this memorable occasion as we swear in some key statutory Government functionaries to various offices to drive the process of good governance, progress and development of Plateau State for the overall interest of our people.  
2. While some of these appointees have been selected to fill existing vacancies in the agencies occasioned by the demise of previous holders of those offices, other ones are either newly appointed or reappointed for another term. However, the appointees have been carefully selected due to their tract record of service, diligence and competence in the public service and elsewhere.
3. By their pedigree and records, they have met the criteria to be so appointed to contribute their quota to the attainment of the vision of the Rescue Administration. We have done our best to see that we are putting round pegs in round holes. This is why the House of Assembly deemed it necessary to confirm their nominations. I want to thank the Rt. Hon. Speaker and entire Members of the House for their consideration and confirmation of the nominees.




4. Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, the appointees being sworn in today are expected to play crucial roles in the governance structure of Plateau State particularly in the areas of Civil Service Reform; Revenue Generation; Good Governance; and Accountability; as well as Social Welfare and Inclusivity. In other words, they are going to be deeply involved in implementing various aspects of our three-point policy vision of Peace, Security and Good Governance; Physical Infrastructural Development and Sustainable Economic Rebirth.
5. Based on the current challenges we face as a State, we must adopt new measures that will help us deliver services to our people and respond to their needs in a proactive manner. The economic and socio-political environment requires that we must be creative, ingenious, focus-driven, committed and determined to keep up to managing resources and people effectively.
6. You are aware that this administration has been pursuing the reform of the civil service in order to make it more effective, result-oriented and accountable. 
7. Greater accountability and transparency is also being pursued in the civil service through the BVN to track those who are shortchanging Government. Already, about 532 names have been removed from Government payroll after an initial investigation, which revealed inconsistencies in their records. 
8. Some had falsified their age or tampered with their records. Others could not appear to answer queries on such records. Further verification is being carried out by the high-powered Committee under the leadership of former Secretary to Government of the State, Nde John Gobak. 
9. As experienced technocrats, Plateau State will be relying on you to deploy the best of your skills, techniques, and experiences to track down ghost workers, and other fraudulent staff who have over the years tampered with their records to perpetually remain in service. 
10. This is the only way we can save cost and open up doors for the younger ones to be engaged in service and bring in fresh ideas about governance. 

11. Moreover, this is a generation that is driven by Information and Communication Technologies that are at the tip of the fingers of our children. Why then would someone continue to tamper with records to block the younger ones from having an opportunity to serve the State and the nation?  
12. In terms of boosting the economic fortunes of the State, Government has continued to pay greater attention to revenue generation. This is more so when the resources accruing to the State have fallen sharply due to many factors including the Corona Virus Pandemic. This development puts us in a very precarious position, making it difficult to muster resources for development.
13. Therefore, we took bold steps towards radically changing our revenue profile. We unbundled the then Revenue Board and signed into law the Plateau State Revenue (Consolidation) Bill 2020 leading to the creation of an Integrated Revenue Administration System. This led to the establishment of the Revenue Council as well as the inauguration of a new Board for the Plateau Internal Revenue Service.
14. In addition, we have commenced partnership with Compliance Professionals PLC, a tax consulting firm which is assisting us to increase our revenue collection and blocking leakages. Our target is that our revenues which have grown from about 600 million naira when we came into office to an average of 1 billion currently will rise to over 3 billion naira monthly. The new Chairman of the PSIRS who is part of the reform knows that all eyes will be on him to make the new revenue vision come to pass. 
15. As for the Auditor General of the State; the Director General of Procurement; and the Member of the State House of Assembly Commission; you are coming into office when we have already commenced implementing Full Autonomy for the Legislature and Judiciary. There is greater need for transparency, accountability and due diligence across the three arms to ensure that resources are used judiciously and for the benefit of the people.
16. You will recall that prior to the implementation of full Autonomy, we had extended the frontiers of good governance in the State with more prudence in the management of the scarce State resources. 
17. We improved the Budgeting Process in line with best global practices and adopted the State Fiscal Transparency Accountability and Sustainability (SFTAS) Programme for better results. This has enhanced Citizenship Participation in the Budgeting Processes. 
18. The Project Monitoring and Result Delivery Office (PMRDO) was also established to track, monitor and evaluate the implementation of Government programmes and projects in line with timelines and set targets. So far, it has performed creditably in ensuring that public resources deployed achieve the outcomes envisaged and give value to the people.
19. We also continued the implementation of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) to aggregate the inflow and outflow of public resources for easy management and accountability. 
20. With the re-invigoration of the Efficiency Unit and the Liquidity Management Committee, we have also done a lot to ensure that wasteful spending is eliminated while all resources are channeled towards areas that will yield profit for the State. 
The Efficiency Unit has so far saved the State about 3 billion naira annually. 
21. We must continue to build on this trajectory in order to improve the generation of resources, and most importantly deploy them effectively for the good of our people and also hold those saddled with the responsibility of managing them accountable. This is what will eventually translate into the attainment of the goals that the Government has been saddled with and the fulfillment of the social contract with the people.
22. For the appointee into the Board of the Plateau State Independent Electoral Commission, you are also coming into office at a time when the people are gearing up for change of leadership at the grassroots. Already, PLASIEC has issued timetable and guidelines leading to Local Government Elections. We expect that you will play your part in ensuring that the forthcoming elections are free, fair and credible and represent the true wishes of the electorate.  

23. As for the Chairman and members of the Disability Commission, you are fully aware that people living with disabilities have a special place in my heart. That is why apart from repositioning the Commission in line with the Law establishing it, my administration has continued to carry along this special group in all government policies and programmes. Our State has become a shining example for the entire nation which led to the setting up of the National Agency for People Living with Disabilities currently headed by our son as the Executive Secretary who was the Chairman of the State Commission.
24. Let me remind you that we have already raised the bar and we do not expect anything short from you. Therefore, you must take the Commission to the next level by ensuring that there is more inclusivity, visibility, and more opportunities for our people who are living with one form of disability or the other. 


25. Already, there is a legal framework to ensure that the society carries along this category of people. You must ensure that there is compliance and enforcement of the provisions to enable them contribute to societal development. 
26. For all the appointees, as you settle down to duty in your various offices, I assure you of Government support towards ensuring that you fulfill your duties to the best of your ability. While we do our best to make you comfortable, you must also be ready to be sacrificial, patriotic and self-less. 
27. You must refrain from abusing your offices and also shun any act of corruption, favouratism and nepotism. The civil service is not a religious organization, political party or ethnic entity. You must be professional and fair to all according to the extant laws and regulations guiding your agencies. 
28. Government will not hesitate to remove anyone of you found wanting and where necessary initiate legal proceedings to ensure prosecution of anyone found guilty of abusing the public trust. 

29. I wish you the best and once again congratulate you for your appointments. Let us continue to Think Plateau and Act Plateau.
30. God bless Plateau State and the Federal Republic if Nigeria.


Rt. Hon. (Dr) Simon Bako Lalong, KSGG
Executive Governor of Plateau State 
13th July 2021.
LIST OF CONFIRMED NOMINEES TO BE SWORN IN:
1. Barr Luka C. Fwangyil - Chairman, Civil
 Service Commission
2. Chief James Barry - Member, Civil Service 
Commission
3. Mr. Rindam Selchum Lar - Auditor-General, 
Plateau State
4. Alh. Salisu Gyabe - Member, PLASIEC 
5. Mr. Peter Dogo - D.G. Procurement 
6. Mr. Arlat Dashe Dasogot - Chairman, PSIRS
7. Ms Kiyennah John Mizim - Chairman, Disability
Commission
8. Mr. Seth Attah - Member, Disability
Commission
9. Mr. Gyang Joshua Zi - Member, Disability
Commission
10. Catherine Kyamwan - Member, Disability
Commission
11. Mr. Deignmuk M. Damasus-Member, Disability
  Commission
12. Hon. Dinah Lar - Member, Plateau
State House of Assembly Commission
13. Mr. Felix Rwang-Dung - DG, Plateau State Infrastructure Promotion and Regulatory Agency (PPP Office)

GOVERNOR LALONG CONDOLES CATHOLIC CHURCH OVER DEATH OF REV. FR. RAYMOND HICKEY

Plateau State Governor Simon Bako Lalong has described the late Augustinian Catholic Priest Rev. Fr. Raymond Hickey, as a man whose love and passion for Nigeria and its people transcended the barriers of religion, ethnicity or socio-political attributes.
Governor Lalong who eulogized the cleric during a condolence visit to the Augustinian Community at St. Monica’s Parish Rantya, Jos, to commiserate with the Church over the demise of the Irish Priest said the deceased had deep faith in Nigeria’s unity, peace and progress and also held a huge reservoir of knowledge on the history of many challenges and successes of the country, particularly the Northern Region where he spent about 60 years preaching the gospel.
Lalong said “Indeed the death of Rev. Fr. Raymond Hickey is a great loss to the Catholic Church as it has lost one of its committed Missionaries that devoted his life to the service of God and humanity. Having spent his almost 60 years of priesthood in Nigeria serving between Maiduguri Diocese, Yola Diocese, Jos Archdiocese and in the Apostolic Nunciature, Abuja, the late Rev. Fr. Raymond Hickey, ministered to Catholics, non-Catholics and people of different religious, cultural, ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds”.

He also said his love for Nigeria enabled him to easily connect with her people at all levels while working for the salvation of their souls, reconciling them to God and championing their rights. Little wonder, he has earned tremendous respect and variously described as a historian, researcher, conservator, an author, but above all, as a humble and dedicated Irish Augustinian priest.

Responding, Rev. Fr. (Prof) Anthony Kanu, (OSA) the Prior Provincial, Order of St. Augustine, Province of Nigeria, thanked the governor for commiserating with them and said the deceased had given the Augustinians in Nigeria a positive connecting identity through his great works across the country.

“He was a historian and the respect accorded him is also accorded us. We shall miss Fr. Raymond Hickey, we have actually enjoyed the fruit of his labour and the dividends are still with us,” he said.

He expressed confidence that Hickey’s works would be written in the annals of history, and will for the next 100 years , remain a valuable resource for anyone writing the history of Catholic Church in Northern Nigeria.

Rev. Fr. Raymond Hickey was born in Dublin, Ireland in 1936 and ordained a catholic priest in 1960 in Rome before being posted for missionary work to Nigeria. He came to Nigeria as a Catholic missionary and served in Borno and Yobe states for 28 years. Fr. Raymond has lived among the people of Zaladava of Pulka, the Karekare, Ngezim and Ngamo of Fika division, the Kanakuru and Bura of Shani. He also served in Bekaji, Jimeta/Yola, as well as Jos, Lagos and Mararabar Ngurku, outside Abuja. Untill his death, he was a priest of the Jos Diocese.

Dr. Makut Simon Macham 
Director of Press & Public Affairs to the Governor of Plateau State
12th July 2021

POPULATION DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

*By Yilgak'ha*

Introduction
Starting from 1989, July 11 of every year is observed as "World Population Day". This ritual has been sustained following the phenomenal attainment of Five (5) billion human population in the world in 1987. The motivation for the adoption of the day by Governing Council of the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) was to discuss issues surrounding population growth and its dynamics.

The theme for this year's event is: “Rights and Choices are the answer: Whether Baby Boom or Bust, the Solution to Shifting Fertility Rates Lies in Prioritising the Reproductive Health and Rights of All People.” This theme is quite apt but could be better handled by health experts.  The focus of my discourse is to appreciate the implications of population dynamics on economic development in Nigeria with the view to providing modest solutions that could further strengthen the various efforts that are being put in place towards sustainable development in the country.

The discourse is ordered under three sub headings: Appreciation of Nigeria's development trajectory; examination of the implications of population growth on food security and infrastructure and finally conclude with possible policy suggestions. It is an expository treatment of the subject matter.

*Nigeria's development trajectory*

Nigeria is a developing country which got political independence from its 'British Colonial Masters' on October 1, 1960. Since that time the country has made concerted efforts in attaining National development generally and economic development in particular.

Some of the deliberate efforts made towards the attainment of holistic development include the evolution of development plans namely, the First development plan (1962 - 1968); Second National Development plan(1970 - 1974); Third National Development (1975 - 1980); Fourth National Development Plan (1981 - 1985). Others are the The Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) which was designed to last for 3 years (1986 - 1988) but was later extended to provide the basis for National Rolling Plan which characterised planning from 1990. Abacha's Regime introduced vision 2010; Obasanjo brought National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS); Late President Umaru Yardu'a came with vision 2020 to be powered by his his 7 point Agenda. President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, after the demise of his principal, introduced the transformation agenda and the Economic Recovery and Growth (ERGP) of the current Buhari regime.

Government had also established countless institutions and agencies; convened constitutional conferences and review sessions at  the National Assembly. The country is a signitory to several bilateral and multilateral agreements as well as becoming member of regional and international organisations and the promotion of ethical and moral orientation, all towards socio-political and economic transformation but to no avail.

Despite the country's rich human and material resources and multi faceted  efforts invested, Nigeria is still grossly underdeveloped. The country's showing in all development indicators is very poor.

Analysing Nigeria's development condition using the tripartite Human Development Index (HDI) which include Knowledge, longevity and purchasing power, Nigeria is lagging behind. In terms of the purchasing power which is basically the financial ability of the citizens buy goods and services, the country is rated 0.79 Per cent (Aaron, May, 2021); the country's literacy rate which measures basic education is estimated at 62. 02 per cent while longevity is estimated to be 60.87 years (59 years for males and 63 years for females) as reported by statista (2021). Except for purchasing power index, the HDI showed better performance in Nigeria but it must be noted that life expectancy and longevity for states and geopolitical zones of Nigeria vary significantly.

Using Seer's (1969) standard,  it is evident Nigeria is far from being developed. This scholar postulated that for a nation to determine whether it is developed, three questions: What is happening to poverty? What is happening to unemployment and what is happening to inequality? That if the answers indicated decline in the three, then it is developed; the reverse is the case. 

Available statistics showed that Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is abysmally low. It is worrisome that low growth trajectory of the country has become trendy. From 2.35 per cent in 2015 it dropped to -1.92 in 2020 and since the Nigeria's growth grew at snails' speed until the country went into another recession following the Covid-19 lock down of year, 2020. 

The contraction in the economic space has created worsening job crisis in the country. Unemployment in Nigeria rose from 8. 19 per cent in 2015 to 33. 28 per cent in 2020 (Statisense, 2021). In terms of poverty, it was once remarked that Nigeria is 'the only developing country where poverty is increasing'. The country is currently the poverty capital of the world after overtaking India in 2019 with an estimated 98 million extreme poor, representating 51per cent living in abject poverty with no immediate solutions in sight. In the country also, the gap between the rich and the poor is widening day by day as the size of the middle class in the country is highly negligible.

Nigeria's economic situation could best be described as stagflation, a condition where all the 'economic evils' namely, poverty unemployment, inflation are increasing in the same direction as the economy groans (Ayuba, 2016). It is a very tricky and difficult problem which emerged after the potent "General Theory of Employment and Interest" of John Maynard Keynes which was used in overcoming the Great Depression of 1929. 

Stagflation represents one of the 21st century problems facing academics, researchers and policy makers. It is challenge that has de-marketed outstanding theoretical and policy postulations by Keynes, Phillip's inflation - unemployment trade off (Phillip' Curve) sand other related ones.

The frustration associated with the current reality has robbed Nigerians of their happiness. Out of 145 countries Nigeria is ranked 18th in Africa and 116th in the world. The country managed to come before Mali which is placed at 19th in Africa and 117th in the world,  and Uganda which ranked 20th in Africa and 119 in the world (Business Insight, March, 2021). The is a disturbing trend, to say the least.

*Implications of population growth/dynamics*

As Nigeria battles economic contradictions associated with stagflation, some of the issues to be carefully considered and addressed are  those of infrastructure deficit and rapid population growth and its dynamics which have far reaching implications for sustainable development.

Infrastructure is a very critical catalyst for development. It is the structure upon which all economic are being conducted any where in the universe. Unfortunately, Nigeria operating on an infrastructure is grossly inadequate, dilapidated and decaying due institutional corruption and poor maintenance culture amongst the citizenry. 
Infrastructure is capital intensive, the cost estimate of funds needed to bridge the current infrastructure gap facing the country is is put at $100 billion (N36 trillions) annually and curiously no Nigeria's has exceeded half of this figure. This implies that government cannot shoulder the responsibility all by itself but through partnerships with the private sector. And 
if the need resources are gotten will be invested in housing, transport/communication and power, especially. The need to augment and upgrade a country's Key Public Infrastructure (KPI) is a continuum in view of changes in technology and population size and dynamics.

Population basically is one leg of a country's natural resource endowment. It is the human resource component which together with material resources constitute natural resource base of an economy. The place of population in National development has been a subject of endless debate amongst scholars, policy makers and development partners. 

In Thomas' (1803) postulation, a rapidly growing population in the face of slow production in food supply will ultimately spell doom for humanity and therefore advocated for population control. This submission was probably the first major and novel population discourse and enlightenment to be documented in economic literature which proposes the need for population control otherwise the worse on food crisis will occur. Although the postulation was criticised as shortsighted of the break throughs in technology which brought innovations in food sources at the time and even now. However, the fact that increasing population without corresponding supply in materials resources including food and infrastructure will trigger major economic crisis cannot be contested.  Here lies the concerns of this piece as Nigeria's population grows rapidly.

With a population of approximately 207 million, Nigeria is the 7th most populated country in the world and the highest in Africa. The country's population is rapidly growing at 2.6 per cent and it is projected that it will be closed to 250 million by 2030 and to be the largest in the world by 2050 (Uwah, June 21, 2021).

The demographic and spatial characteristics of Nigeria's population indicated that 67 per cent of the country's population is youthful (ages  between 16 and 45 years old); the literacy rate of the population is 62.02 per cent and fertility rate 5.3 per cent which is more than twice the global average of 2.5 per cent. This statistics did not reflect gender differentials because it is the considered view of this author that gender does not necessarily determine the productive capacity of an individual or population but the quality of knowledge, skills and ethical make up of the individual. Therefore, the youthful population does not unilaterally or necessarily constitute any advantage in terms productivity until the skill factor is added. 

What Nigeria's population dynamics imply, however, is the danger it posed on job creation, existing infrastructure and food security. The reality is that contracting economic space in the country remotely caused by protracted overdependence on the oil sector which is no longer promising, the culture of rent seeking and Covid19 has jeopardised economic activities worldwide. Day in day out countless Nigerian youths are graduating from all levels of education (primary, Secondary and tertiary) with no entrepreneurial capacity to create jobs.

As Nigeria's population increases rapidly, food supply is not increasing in the same direction. This explained why the country is spending much in food importation to feed the country's population. In 2020 alone, government expenditure on imported food is estimated at $5billion and $1.5 (Vanguard, October 2, 2020). Part of the infrastructure deficit being faced in the country is attributed to rapid population growth. Therefore, the country's population is exerting excessive pressure of available infrastructure. Imagine a community of 200 people relying on one motorised borehole or a primary school with two classroom blocks having over a hundred pupils.

Without proper human capital development, upgraded and expanded infrastructure, Nigeria's population poses serious developmental challenges with unimaginable implications for national security which covers every aspect of national life. It is unfortunate that so far, there is no coherent and well coordinated shortrun and long term National Policy framework that could simultaneously upgrade the country's KPI; moderate it's rapidly growing population to ensure economic recovery in the country. To be objective, it is acknowledged that some attempts have been made in the area of infrastructure and economic recovery but there is simple and completely no deliberate policy action plan on population management. President Buhari made reference to Nigeria's galloping population which has affected the country's capacity to fix its infrastructure but was silent on what to do about it.

*Possible wayforward*

In order to fix Nigeria's infrastructure gap and attend sustainable development there are basically two or three policy options. One, is population adjustment and control. There should be a National policy on procreation and control as obtained in developed climes like the USA, Britain and emerging economies like China. Alternatively, the country is to be diversified away from petroleum towards real sectors of the economy which include agriculture, manufacturing and service in order to expand the economic space which could accommodate more substantially the current army of unemployed youths thereby will reducing the poverty rate in the land. Thirdly, government could borrow and invest in critical infrastructure projects but hire private concerns to manage them in a business like manner. The borrowing option must be accompanied by serious financial discipline and checks to ensure prudent use. Also, there is need to upgrade the maintenance culture of Nigerians through strategic national orientation. All abandoned but critical infrastructure projects which are presently legacies in unimaginable wastage ought to be given attention if anything. 

It should be noted that no private concern could invest in capital intensive infrastructure in economies characterised by lack of continuity, political instability (policy inconsistency) and huge institutional corruption and leaders because such will be a risky venture to undertake and no investor could take such chances or contemplate it. 

The prospect of lifting 100million Nigerians out of poverty in Ten (10) years as projected by the current Nigerian government shall, at best, be a utopian dream which cannot be realised until something deliberate is done about the country's geometric population growth. This is the main thesis of this piece!

*(Modest Thoughts with Ayuba Yilgak'ha, July 9, 2021; SMS: 08118161263; Email: loisayuba420@gmail.com)*

*References*

Thomas M. (1803). An essay on the principle of Population(14th Edition). London:
J.M. Dent. 

Seer, D. (1969). The meaning of development. International Development Review, 11 (4), 1-28.

Ayuba, Y. (2016). Nigeria's economic recession: meaning, causes and wayforward. Jos: Joe-Longs Production.

Uwah, J. (2021). Galloping population growth, crawling economy. Blueprint Newspaper.

Business Day (2021). Nigeria drops 31 places in world happinesses ranking worst in 7 years. Business Day.

Statisense (2021). Nigeria in the last 6years. statisense.com

Bamidele, S. A. (2019). Nigeria needs $100 billion annually to fix infrastructural deficit - finance minister. Nairametrics.com.

Aaron, O. (2021). Unemployment rate. Statista.com.

GRASSROOTS NEWS

NIGERIA, THE SLEEPING GIANT THAT NEEDS TO WAKE UP

Nigeria is defaulting in its responsibility in leading ECOWAS and the African continent. There is no better way to put it than t...