*By Yilgak'ha*
Introduction
Starting from 1989, July 11 of every year is observed as "World Population Day". This ritual has been sustained following the phenomenal attainment of Five (5) billion human population in the world in 1987. The motivation for the adoption of the day by Governing Council of the United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) was to discuss issues surrounding population growth and its dynamics.
The theme for this year's event is: “Rights and Choices are the answer: Whether Baby Boom or Bust, the Solution to Shifting Fertility Rates Lies in Prioritising the Reproductive Health and Rights of All People.” This theme is quite apt but could be better handled by health experts. The focus of my discourse is to appreciate the implications of population dynamics on economic development in Nigeria with the view to providing modest solutions that could further strengthen the various efforts that are being put in place towards sustainable development in the country.
The discourse is ordered under three sub headings: Appreciation of Nigeria's development trajectory; examination of the implications of population growth on food security and infrastructure and finally conclude with possible policy suggestions. It is an expository treatment of the subject matter.
*Nigeria's development trajectory*
Nigeria is a developing country which got political independence from its 'British Colonial Masters' on October 1, 1960. Since that time the country has made concerted efforts in attaining National development generally and economic development in particular.
Some of the deliberate efforts made towards the attainment of holistic development include the evolution of development plans namely, the First development plan (1962 - 1968); Second National Development plan(1970 - 1974); Third National Development (1975 - 1980); Fourth National Development Plan (1981 - 1985). Others are the The Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) which was designed to last for 3 years (1986 - 1988) but was later extended to provide the basis for National Rolling Plan which characterised planning from 1990. Abacha's Regime introduced vision 2010; Obasanjo brought National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS); Late President Umaru Yardu'a came with vision 2020 to be powered by his his 7 point Agenda. President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, after the demise of his principal, introduced the transformation agenda and the Economic Recovery and Growth (ERGP) of the current Buhari regime.
Government had also established countless institutions and agencies; convened constitutional conferences and review sessions at the National Assembly. The country is a signitory to several bilateral and multilateral agreements as well as becoming member of regional and international organisations and the promotion of ethical and moral orientation, all towards socio-political and economic transformation but to no avail.
Despite the country's rich human and material resources and multi faceted efforts invested, Nigeria is still grossly underdeveloped. The country's showing in all development indicators is very poor.
Analysing Nigeria's development condition using the tripartite Human Development Index (HDI) which include Knowledge, longevity and purchasing power, Nigeria is lagging behind. In terms of the purchasing power which is basically the financial ability of the citizens buy goods and services, the country is rated 0.79 Per cent (Aaron, May, 2021); the country's literacy rate which measures basic education is estimated at 62. 02 per cent while longevity is estimated to be 60.87 years (59 years for males and 63 years for females) as reported by statista (2021). Except for purchasing power index, the HDI showed better performance in Nigeria but it must be noted that life expectancy and longevity for states and geopolitical zones of Nigeria vary significantly.
Using Seer's (1969) standard, it is evident Nigeria is far from being developed. This scholar postulated that for a nation to determine whether it is developed, three questions: What is happening to poverty? What is happening to unemployment and what is happening to inequality? That if the answers indicated decline in the three, then it is developed; the reverse is the case.
Available statistics showed that Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is abysmally low. It is worrisome that low growth trajectory of the country has become trendy. From 2.35 per cent in 2015 it dropped to -1.92 in 2020 and since the Nigeria's growth grew at snails' speed until the country went into another recession following the Covid-19 lock down of year, 2020.
The contraction in the economic space has created worsening job crisis in the country. Unemployment in Nigeria rose from 8. 19 per cent in 2015 to 33. 28 per cent in 2020 (Statisense, 2021). In terms of poverty, it was once remarked that Nigeria is 'the only developing country where poverty is increasing'. The country is currently the poverty capital of the world after overtaking India in 2019 with an estimated 98 million extreme poor, representating 51per cent living in abject poverty with no immediate solutions in sight. In the country also, the gap between the rich and the poor is widening day by day as the size of the middle class in the country is highly negligible.
Nigeria's economic situation could best be described as stagflation, a condition where all the 'economic evils' namely, poverty unemployment, inflation are increasing in the same direction as the economy groans (Ayuba, 2016). It is a very tricky and difficult problem which emerged after the potent "General Theory of Employment and Interest" of John Maynard Keynes which was used in overcoming the Great Depression of 1929.
Stagflation represents one of the 21st century problems facing academics, researchers and policy makers. It is challenge that has de-marketed outstanding theoretical and policy postulations by Keynes, Phillip's inflation - unemployment trade off (Phillip' Curve) sand other related ones.
The frustration associated with the current reality has robbed Nigerians of their happiness. Out of 145 countries Nigeria is ranked 18th in Africa and 116th in the world. The country managed to come before Mali which is placed at 19th in Africa and 117th in the world, and Uganda which ranked 20th in Africa and 119 in the world (Business Insight, March, 2021). The is a disturbing trend, to say the least.
*Implications of population growth/dynamics*
As Nigeria battles economic contradictions associated with stagflation, some of the issues to be carefully considered and addressed are those of infrastructure deficit and rapid population growth and its dynamics which have far reaching implications for sustainable development.
Infrastructure is a very critical catalyst for development. It is the structure upon which all economic are being conducted any where in the universe. Unfortunately, Nigeria operating on an infrastructure is grossly inadequate, dilapidated and decaying due institutional corruption and poor maintenance culture amongst the citizenry.
Infrastructure is capital intensive, the cost estimate of funds needed to bridge the current infrastructure gap facing the country is is put at $100 billion (N36 trillions) annually and curiously no Nigeria's has exceeded half of this figure. This implies that government cannot shoulder the responsibility all by itself but through partnerships with the private sector. And
if the need resources are gotten will be invested in housing, transport/communication and power, especially. The need to augment and upgrade a country's Key Public Infrastructure (KPI) is a continuum in view of changes in technology and population size and dynamics.
Population basically is one leg of a country's natural resource endowment. It is the human resource component which together with material resources constitute natural resource base of an economy. The place of population in National development has been a subject of endless debate amongst scholars, policy makers and development partners.
In Thomas' (1803) postulation, a rapidly growing population in the face of slow production in food supply will ultimately spell doom for humanity and therefore advocated for population control. This submission was probably the first major and novel population discourse and enlightenment to be documented in economic literature which proposes the need for population control otherwise the worse on food crisis will occur. Although the postulation was criticised as shortsighted of the break throughs in technology which brought innovations in food sources at the time and even now. However, the fact that increasing population without corresponding supply in materials resources including food and infrastructure will trigger major economic crisis cannot be contested. Here lies the concerns of this piece as Nigeria's population grows rapidly.
With a population of approximately 207 million, Nigeria is the 7th most populated country in the world and the highest in Africa. The country's population is rapidly growing at 2.6 per cent and it is projected that it will be closed to 250 million by 2030 and to be the largest in the world by 2050 (Uwah, June 21, 2021).
The demographic and spatial characteristics of Nigeria's population indicated that 67 per cent of the country's population is youthful (ages between 16 and 45 years old); the literacy rate of the population is 62.02 per cent and fertility rate 5.3 per cent which is more than twice the global average of 2.5 per cent. This statistics did not reflect gender differentials because it is the considered view of this author that gender does not necessarily determine the productive capacity of an individual or population but the quality of knowledge, skills and ethical make up of the individual. Therefore, the youthful population does not unilaterally or necessarily constitute any advantage in terms productivity until the skill factor is added.
What Nigeria's population dynamics imply, however, is the danger it posed on job creation, existing infrastructure and food security. The reality is that contracting economic space in the country remotely caused by protracted overdependence on the oil sector which is no longer promising, the culture of rent seeking and Covid19 has jeopardised economic activities worldwide. Day in day out countless Nigerian youths are graduating from all levels of education (primary, Secondary and tertiary) with no entrepreneurial capacity to create jobs.
As Nigeria's population increases rapidly, food supply is not increasing in the same direction. This explained why the country is spending much in food importation to feed the country's population. In 2020 alone, government expenditure on imported food is estimated at $5billion and $1.5 (Vanguard, October 2, 2020). Part of the infrastructure deficit being faced in the country is attributed to rapid population growth. Therefore, the country's population is exerting excessive pressure of available infrastructure. Imagine a community of 200 people relying on one motorised borehole or a primary school with two classroom blocks having over a hundred pupils.
Without proper human capital development, upgraded and expanded infrastructure, Nigeria's population poses serious developmental challenges with unimaginable implications for national security which covers every aspect of national life. It is unfortunate that so far, there is no coherent and well coordinated shortrun and long term National Policy framework that could simultaneously upgrade the country's KPI; moderate it's rapidly growing population to ensure economic recovery in the country. To be objective, it is acknowledged that some attempts have been made in the area of infrastructure and economic recovery but there is simple and completely no deliberate policy action plan on population management. President Buhari made reference to Nigeria's galloping population which has affected the country's capacity to fix its infrastructure but was silent on what to do about it.
*Possible wayforward*
In order to fix Nigeria's infrastructure gap and attend sustainable development there are basically two or three policy options. One, is population adjustment and control. There should be a National policy on procreation and control as obtained in developed climes like the USA, Britain and emerging economies like China. Alternatively, the country is to be diversified away from petroleum towards real sectors of the economy which include agriculture, manufacturing and service in order to expand the economic space which could accommodate more substantially the current army of unemployed youths thereby will reducing the poverty rate in the land. Thirdly, government could borrow and invest in critical infrastructure projects but hire private concerns to manage them in a business like manner. The borrowing option must be accompanied by serious financial discipline and checks to ensure prudent use. Also, there is need to upgrade the maintenance culture of Nigerians through strategic national orientation. All abandoned but critical infrastructure projects which are presently legacies in unimaginable wastage ought to be given attention if anything.
It should be noted that no private concern could invest in capital intensive infrastructure in economies characterised by lack of continuity, political instability (policy inconsistency) and huge institutional corruption and leaders because such will be a risky venture to undertake and no investor could take such chances or contemplate it.
The prospect of lifting 100million Nigerians out of poverty in Ten (10) years as projected by the current Nigerian government shall, at best, be a utopian dream which cannot be realised until something deliberate is done about the country's geometric population growth. This is the main thesis of this piece!
*(Modest Thoughts with Ayuba Yilgak'ha, July 9, 2021; SMS: 08118161263; Email: loisayuba420@gmail.com)*
*References*
Thomas M. (1803). An essay on the principle of Population(14th Edition). London:
J.M. Dent.
Seer, D. (1969). The meaning of development. International Development Review, 11 (4), 1-28.
Ayuba, Y. (2016). Nigeria's economic recession: meaning, causes and wayforward. Jos: Joe-Longs Production.
Uwah, J. (2021). Galloping population growth, crawling economy. Blueprint Newspaper.
Business Day (2021). Nigeria drops 31 places in world happinesses ranking worst in 7 years. Business Day.
Statisense (2021). Nigeria in the last 6years. statisense.com
Bamidele, S. A. (2019). Nigeria needs $100 billion annually to fix infrastructural deficit - finance minister. Nairametrics.com.
Aaron, O. (2021). Unemployment rate. Statista.com.
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